Crypto Feed

XRP has reclaimed key price levels and is now testing resistance as the market builds toward what looks like a decisive move. The price is accelerating — from $1.41 at the time of the data snapshot to past $1.45 shortly after — and the momentum is drawing attention. But an XWIN Research Japan analysis is arguing that the force behind this move is different from what has driven XRP rallies in the past, and that difference is worth understanding. Related Reading: XRP Volatility Just Hit A Multi-Year Low – Analysts Explain Something Is About To Change The report identifies what it describes as a rare structural divergence. In most crypto markets, exchange speculation dominates. Trading volumes on centralized exchanges typically run 10x, 20x, sometimes 50x higher than actual on-chain utility. The assumption baked into most crypto price analysis is that speculation is the engine and real use is the passenger. For XRP, that ratio has compressed to 1.75. On-chain settlement volume stands at 291 million XRP. Aggregate speculative volume sits at 510 million. The gap between the casino and the infrastructure has nearly disappeared. And in the context of how crypto markets normally operate, that is genuinely unusual. What it suggests is that the price is not being pushed by traders chasing momentum. It is being pulled by adoption. The network is being used at a scale that is nearly matching the volume being traded around it — and according to the analysis, that changes everything about what the current price level means. The Network Is Active. The Exchanges Are Nearly Empty The supporting data behind the speculation-to-utility ratio removes any ambiguity about what is driving the current XRP move. Active addresses on the XRP Ledger reached 17,329 in the past 24 hours — a reading that broke above the weekly average and confirms that network participation is genuinely expanding, not just speculative volume inflating the numbers. Real accounts are conducting real transactions. Then there is the Binance inflow figure, which is the most striking data point in the entire report. While 291 million XRP settled on the blockchain — institutional remittances, OTC transactions, custody movements — only 1.36 million XRP entered Binance. In markets where exchange inflow typically tracks or exceeds on-chain activity, this ratio now almost inverts. The overwhelming majority of XRP moving through the network is going nowhere near the sell side. Related Reading: Ethereum Buyers Dominate Like It’s 2021 – Find Out What Happens Next That is the supply shock the analysis has been building toward. When coins are being used for legitimate settlement and custody rather than deposited on exchanges to be sold, the available liquid supply tightens with every transaction. Selling pressure cannot come from coins that never arrive at exchanges. The report’s conclusion is direct: at $1.41, the price has not yet caught up to what the on-chain data is describing. The adjustment, it argues, is still in its early stages — and the network is already doing the work that makes it inevitable. XRP Stabilizes Below Key Resistance XRP’s higher-timeframe structure shows a market still in a corrective phase, but beginning to stabilize after an extended decline. Following the mid-2025 peak above $3.50, the price entered a sustained downtrend defined by consistent lower highs and a breakdown below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. That trend accelerated into early 2026, culminating in a sharp selloff that briefly pushed XRP toward the $1.20 region, accompanied by a spike in volume that suggests capitulation. Since then, the price has shifted into a consolidation range between roughly $1.30 and $1.50. This range is forming just below the 200-day moving average, which continues to slope downward and acts as a key macro resistance level. The 50-day moving average has flattened and is beginning to curl upward, reflecting improving short-term momentum, but without yet confirming a structural reversal. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Are Choosing To Hold At $74K: Changing The Supply Picture Volume has declined steadily following the capitulation event, indicating reduced participation and a market in wait-and-see mode. The repeated defense of the $1.30 area points to emerging demand, while the inability to break above $1.50 highlights persistent overhead supply. This compression typically precedes expansion. A confirmed break above $1.50–$1.60 would signal a shift toward recovery, while a loss of $1.30 would likely resume the broader downtrend. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

A fresh crypto controversy has flared up in Poland, with Prime Minister Donald Tusk accusing a crypto firm he says was formed with “Russian money” of backing political rivals and conservative events.  Tusk made the remarks in the Polish parliament on Friday, as lawmakers prepared to vote on whether to overturn a veto by Karol Nawrocki, the presidential candidate whose leadership has become central to the dispute over new crypto regulations. The issue traces back to Nawrocki’s rejection of two separate attempts by the liberal government to regulate the Polish crypto market over the last six months.  Zondacrypto’s Ties To Bratva And Russian Secret Services According to AP, Tusk spoke ahead of the parliamentary vote to override Nawrocki’s decision. In his speech, Tusk argued that the repeated blocking of regulations pointed to the interests of a particular company, Zondacrypto, which he said has provided financial support and maintains links to Russia. Tusk’s allegations went beyond general claims of foreign influence. He told lawmakers that the funding behind Zondacrypto’s success comes from Russian money tied to the “Bratva,” described by Tusk as one of Russia’s most important mafia groups, as well as from Russian secret services.  Related Reading: Circle (CRCL) Sued Over $280M Drift Protocol Hack—What Plaintiffs Claim He further said Zondacrypto not only supports events in Poland but also “promotes very specific political forces.” In his account, the company has helped finance politicians from the Law and Justice party, Poland’s former national-conservative governing group, along with figures from the far-right Confederation. The prime minister also claimed that the crypto firm served as a strategic sponsor of a major Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) event held in Poland.  That meeting took place in Rzeszów in March 2025, AP reported, just five days before the presidential election that delivered a tight race between a candidate associated with Tusk’s political camp and Nawrocki. Government Defends Crypto Rules Tusk also asserted that Nawrocki was fully aware of Zondacrypto’s details when he chose to veto the proposed crypto regulations. He argued that the veto decisions were not made without context, pointing to the alleged relationship between Zondacrypto and key political actors. In response to the accusations, Zbigniew Bogucki, head of the president’s office, said Nawrocki was not opposing the need to regulate the crypto markets.  Instead, Bogucki said Nawrocki’s objections were aimed at what he described as a flawed “regulatory model” proposed by the government. Meanwhile, Sławomir Mentzen, leader of the Confederation party, said the incoming legislation would have “destroyed the Polish cryptocurrency market.” Related Reading: Could Bitcoin Hit $90,000 And Trigger A New Altcoin Rally? Expert Cites 6 Major Catalysts The Polish government maintains that the new crypto regulations are designed to bring Poland in line with European Union (EU) rules governing digital assets.  As for Zondacrypto, the company did not respond directly to AP’s questions about Tusk’s claims. However, the firm had told Polish media earlier this week that it is cooperating with Polish authorities investigating the allegations. For now, the parliamentary vote scheduled to follow Tusk’s remarks will determine whether the government can move forward despite Nawrocki’s vetoes—while the wider political dispute over alleged foreign-linked support for specific factions continues to grow around Poland’s crypto debate. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Data shows the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has edged into the negative territory, a sign that could prove to be bearish for the asset’s price. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap Has Declined Recently As highlighted by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in an X post, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has seen a flip for the first time in nine days. The “Coinbase Premium Gap” here refers to an indicator that measures the difference between the BTC price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and that on Binance (USDT pair). When the value of this metric is positive, it means the cryptocurrency is trading at a higher value on Coinbase than Binance. Such a trend implies users of the former are applying a higher amount of buying pressure or lower amount of selling pressure than the latter’s traders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Stalls As 60,000 BTC From STHs Hits Exchanges On the other hand, the indicator being below the zero mark suggests Binance users are the ones participating in more buying as the asset is going for a higher rate on there. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap over the past month: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap surged to a notable positive level earlier in the week, suggesting that Coinbase users were accumulating. Alongside this rise in the metric, BTC observed a recovery rally. In recent years, the cryptocurrency’s spot value correlating with the Coinbase Premium Gap is something that has often been observed. The reason behind this could be down to the fact that American institutional entities, which prefer to use Coinbase, have lately seen their presence grow in the digital asset sector. From the chart, it’s visible that while the Coinbase Premium Gap shot up earlier, its value has declined to a level just below zero recently. This could indicate that the US whales have dropped their accumulation. Naturally, if a proper drop into the negative zone now occurs, BTC could end up feeling a bearish effect, similar to the pullback from the second half of March. Related Reading: Ethereum Retail Hands Still In Disbelief, Keep Selling Into Strength Though, while this development in the indicator has occurred, Bitcoin has actually surged so far. BTC Breaks Past $76,000 For The First Time Since February Bitcoin furthered its recovery during the last 24 hours as its price approached the $77,000 mark before retracing back to $76,500. A result of this surge has been that more than $209 million in bearish Bitcoin bets have been liquidated over the past day, according to data from CoinGlass. In the cryptocurrency derivatives sector as a whole, over $456 million in short positions have been flushed inside this window. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s long-term holder cohort is still expanding, but a key profitability gauge has slipped back below neutral, creating a more cautious read on market structure even as older supply continues to move out of circulation. In an April 17 market note, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. said Bitcoin’s LTH Realized Supply climbed from 5.26 million BTC in January to 8.32 million BTC as of April 16, an increase of 3.06 million BTC in three months. At the same time, LTH SOPR, measured on a seven-day moving average, fell to 0.979 and has now remained below 1.0 for five straight days. Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Data Turns Cautious “The long-term holder cohort continues to expand,” he wrote. “This combination matters: the volume of coins in the LTH cohort is growing, but part of the spent old coins is already exiting at a loss.” In other words, more coins are aging into long-term holder status, but some of the coins that are being spent by that cohort are no longer being sold profitably. The supply side of the equation still looks structurally constructive. Adler said the Bitcoin LTH Realized Supply chart shows “a sharp increase in the volume of coins in the LTH cohort,” rising from 4.16 million BTC to 8.32 million BTC over the past year. He argued that the trend signals “an expansion of long-term holding and a compression of liquid supply,” while also noting that part of the increase reflects existing coins simply maturing into the 155-day threshold rather than fresh purchases alone. Related Reading: This Indicator Used To Predict Bitcoin Bottoms Is Flashing Below $50,000 A rising LTH Realized Supply series does not automatically imply new demand, but it does point to more supply becoming inactive for longer periods. Adler contrasted the current setup with the 2022 bear market, when LTH Realized Supply reached 15.31 million BTC in November before beginning to decline as older coins were spent. For now, he said, the current profile is more consistent with consolidation near $75,000 than with a broad distribution event. The warning sign is coming from holder behavior at the point of sale. Adler described repeated dips in LTH SOPR below 1.0 since February, a sign that long-term holders who are spending coins have periodically been doing so at a loss. The latest reading, 0.979, follows a deeper episode in late March and early April, when the indicator dropped to 0.798 and stayed below 1.0 for seven consecutive days before briefly recovering between April 5 and April 11. Adler stopped short of calling that capitulation. “The current picture is a series of recurring shallow dips below 1.0 with quick recoveries, not a prolonged capitulation,” he wrote. “The key question now is whether the current series will hold above the March lows (0.798) or SOPR will break below them. A repeat move deeper, combined with a simultaneous reversal of Realized Supply downward, is the real red flag for a regime change.” Related Reading: 9 Reasons Why The Bitcoin Bottom May Already Be In: Expert That framing is important because it sets clear conditions for what would turn the current signal from local stress into something more serious. As long as SOPR remains in what Adler described as a shallow-loss zone and rebounds quickly, the implication is short-term pressure rather than a full bearish reset. In the note’s FAQ section, he said such brief dislocations have historically functioned as entry points rather than confirmation of a broader downside impulse. The bearish case, by Adler’s own definition, requires two things to happen together: LTH SOPR staying meaningfully below 1.0 and deepening, while LTH Realized Supply rolls over. That would suggest not just loss realization by old hands, but a broader shift from cohort expansion into active distribution. For now, Adler’s conclusion lands in the middle. The backdrop remains structurally positive because long-term holder supply is still rising, but the fresh loss-selling signal means the market is no longer cleanly constructive. The next move in SOPR, especially relative to the March low, may determine whether this is just another local stress episode or the start of a more meaningful shift in Bitcoin’s holder regime. At press time, BTC traded at $77,880. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Aave has surged more than 30% since Monday, making it one of the standout performers in a market that has been searching for momentum. The move is drawing attention — and raising a question that is worth examining carefully: is this a genuine recovery, or a relief bounce after one of the most turbulent stretches in the protocol’s recent history? Related Reading: XRP Volatility Just Hit A Multi-Year Low – Analysts Explain Something Is About To Change To understand what the rally means, it helps to understand what preceded it. According to top analyst Darkfost, Aave has been navigating a serious confidence crisis. Chaos Labs, the risk management firm that played a central role in the protocol’s safety infrastructure, recently exited, citing fundamental misalignment on risk strategy, rising complexity from the upcoming V4 upgrade, and economics it considered unsustainable — this despite a $5 million budget proposal on the table. The departure did not happen in isolation. It followed the exits of ACI and BGD Labs, two other key contributors, raising legitimate concerns about operational continuity and who exactly is steering Aave’s risk framework as it moves into its next phase. That wave of exits drove the token into a steep decline on top of an already difficult broader market correction. Aave ultimately reached a drawdown of 81.6% from its peak — a level that brought it back to valuations last seen during the previous bear market. That is the context behind this week’s 30% move. And at those depths, Darkfost notes, extreme drawdowns can begin to look like opportunity rather than warning. Aave Has Fallen Twice as Hard as Bitcoin One of the more telling observations in Darkfost’s analysis is the comparison between Aave’s current drawdown and Bitcoin’s. During the previous bear market, the two assets experienced corrections of roughly similar magnitude — a reflection of a market where capital pain was distributed relatively evenly across the ecosystem. The current setup looks nothing like that. Bitcoin is down approximately 40% from its all-time high. Aave is down 81.6%. That is not a small gap — it represents Aave losing more than twice as much of its value relative to where Bitcoin stands. For anyone holding Aave through this cycle, the underperformance has been significant, and it reflects a broader pattern playing out across the altcoin market right now. The divergence reinforces something that has become increasingly clear in this cycle: Bitcoin is acting as the anchor, the primary destination for capital when the market contracts, and the last asset to give up ground. Altcoins, particularly those facing protocol-specific headwinds like Aave has, have absorbed a disproportionate share of the selling pressure. What makes the comparison useful is not the pain it quantifies, but the question it raises. If Aave has already absorbed twice Bitcoin’s correction — including the impact of genuine protocol uncertainty — the question of whether that gap eventually closes becomes an interesting one. The 30% rally this week suggests some investors are beginning to ask it. Related Reading: Ethereum Buyers Dominate Like It’s 2021 – Find Out What Happens Next AAVE Tests Key Resistance After Capitulation AAVE’s price structure reflects a market attempting to transition out of a prolonged downtrend into a short-term recovery phase, but without confirming a broader reversal yet. After peaking above $200 in late 2025, the asset entered a sustained decline marked by a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows. That trend culminated in a sharp capitulation move in early February, where price briefly dropped below $100 on elevated volume, signaling forced selling and a reset in positioning. Since then, AAVE has stabilized and formed a base between roughly $95 and $115. The recent breakout toward the $115–$120 region represents the first meaningful attempt to reclaim prior support as resistance. This level is technically significant, as it acted as a consolidation zone during the breakdown phase and now serves as a key decision point. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Are Choosing To Hold At $74K: Changing The Supply Picture Volume has increased modestly during the recent push higher, suggesting some return of demand, but not yet at levels that confirm strong conviction. The structure remains fragile: price is still operating within a broader bearish framework unless it can establish higher highs above $120–$130. If AAVE holds above $110 and consolidates, it could build momentum for a deeper recovery. Failure to sustain this level would likely return the price to its prior range. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com